A week ago when the Conservative government of Canada announced that they would be barring any of their MP's staff from testifying before Parliamentary committees, I didn't think it would translate into a really embarrassing standoff, with a hint of election in the air.  Yesterday all of that changed.

A Parliamentary committee scheduled to investigate alleged lobbying committed by former Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer all while using his wife's (current MP Helena Guergis) Parliamentary office without registering  as a lobbyist, brought these two issues crashing head on into one another.  It has since been discovered that at least 7 federal department's staff held meetings with Rahim Jaffer in regard to the businesses he was trying to secure funding for.

Which brings us to yesterday where instead of the three staffers who were asked to testify before the committee doing the investigation, their bosses the MPs, turned up in their stead.  Prime Minister Stephen Harper's number two, Transportation Minister John Baird led the way with an increasingly loud series of inane complaints of wanting to be heard.  The committee chair seemed absolutely lost as to what to do, at one point calling for security to escort the MP's out.  It was a waste of two hours of tax payer money all for a little over the top drama for what I can only assume was to goad the opposition into forcing an election.

I have no physical evidence that the Tories want to force an election in the fall, but I'd like to show you how my thought process works on this.

First and foremost, it has always been impressive at how well the Conservatives formulate their message and distribute it.  On top of that, they have an incredible centralized grip on the MPs serving in the party and what they do and do not say, to the point of there being a pseudo media ban that they follow.  We posted a link to an article yesterday by Stephen Harper's former campaign manager which details some of the ways the Prime Minster runs things, which you can find here. 

Secondly, news on the future of the housing market which had been brewing for some time but only recently became national news, is pretty grim with respect to value.  Housing prices are expected to drop in 2011 by at least 2.7% according to TD Bank.  That means a small but significant number of mortgages will be of greater value than the houses are worth, possibly prompting a string of defaults, with what you might consider a predictable ripple effect in the construction, and financial industries.  A political hot potato for anyone holding power when its effects start to become apparent.

Third and last, the Conservatives up until a slight drop in a new EKOS poll today, had been enjoying 35% support while the Liberals, their only real rival currently, had dropped to near record low levels at 25% over the past month.  The fact is that the electorate does not trust Michael Ignatief to run the country yet, if they ever will. 

Now to put this all together.

There is no way that the events of yesterday's debacle led by Conservative MP John Baird wasn't premeditated, especially because of the way the party has been able to control the message so effectively.  It was especially evident because it was all done in front of the cameras where at one point Baird screamed, "You can't handle the truth!"  Using lines from Tom Cruise movies doesn't help me take your position very seriously.

However, it's not really the movie line that caught my attention, it's that the Conservatives want to push a fight over a legitimate investigation into who was a part of the Rahim Jaffer lobbying scandal.  The Tories say that they are protecting their sensitive young staffers from the big bad opposition, claiming that the MPs are solely responsible.  The problem with that argument is that their helpless little staffers are actually the ones who do most of the work and aren't really helpless at all.  The mood of the Canadian public is much like the rest of the world right now and it has no time, or interest in politicians protecting themselves and their staff from a legal investigation.  Canadians polled incredibly high on their desire to see MPs finances be audited which forced the government and Parliament as a whole to reconsider their initial stand against allowing an audit.  And this issue will be no different.  I can't believe that the Conservatives would think blocking an investigation would translate well in the polls in the long term, although perhaps if they did it low key and not the way John Baird did it might have been more effective.

At any rate, we are due for an election in 2011 and what better way to avoid a slumping housing market and massive cuts to spending all while cutting taxes on corporations?  Why you look for an election earlier than that so that you can continue to control the agenda, knowing that the country will not want the opposition to force another election any time soon if it's another minority.  Stephen Harper does not mind running a minority like a majority.

Take it for what it's worth.