There was a fascinating article in the New York Times this past weekend which detailed new allegations about the arrest of Taliban leader Abdul Ghani Baradar and gave some insight as to the struggling factions in the region. 

Seven months ago Pakistani and American spokespeople indicated that they had captured a high level target, but said at the time that they didn't know who they had captured until days later.  Skip ahead to today and Pakistani intelligence officials are claiming that they knew who they were capturing and that they used the CIA to do it because Mr. Baradar was supposedly engaged in secret peace talks in Afghanistan without the approval of their Pakistani backers. 

An unnamed Pakistani security official said,"We picked up Baradar and the others because they were trying to make a deal without us.  We protect the Taliban. They are dependent on us. We are not going to allow them to make a deal with Karzai and the Indians."

Some American officials denied the claim that the Pakistani officials knew who they were capturing and as such used the CIA to disrupt peace negotiations, while others said that it was completely plausible. 

Whether it's true or not is beside the point.  As the article says, it highlights how complicated and widespread the struggle is to stabilize the region.  It has been known for some time that elements of the Pakistani intelligence service, government, and military have long supported the Taliban to gain influence on its neighbours like Afghanistan.  A fractious political system that has the military essentially separate from the civilian government makes things even more difficult.

However, up until the recent flooding which threatens starvation for millions in the region, there was some good news coming out of Pakistan.  The new President of Pakistan, together with the military, finally agreed to take the fight to religious extremists in the Swat valley and into South Waziristan.  That was in June 2009 and the Pakistani people have suffered serious blow back in the form of suicide bombings and shootings,  including killing dozens at Mosques and thousands overall for that decision.  And if there could be a silver lining to all of that violence, its because it has had a very negative effect on the popularity of the Pakistani Taliban and religious extremists in the region, as for the first time Pakistanis view these extremists as more dangerous than India, their long time foe, depending on who you talk to. 

The question now, is where do we go from here?  Obviously getting aid to flood victims and assisting Pakistan with whatever they need to rebuild infrastructure and feed its people is the number one priority, but beyond that I think a renewed effort at cooperation between Pakistani forces and NATO would be ideal.  NATO will be launching its new offensive soon in Afghanistan, but it's still an open question if Pakistan is willing, or able to push ahead with clearing North Waziristan and other remote areas.  The military in Pakistan is still very focused on India with the majority of its troops along the border with them instead of continuing their campaign against extremists in North Waziristan. 

Saying all of that and knowing how complicated the situation is, makes me believe more than ever that walking away from the region too quickly is completely irresponsible.  People may argue about troop numbers and deadlines, but it's clear that any real change will take decades of effort and engagement on multiple fronts.  That means security, as well as diplomacy, and infrastructure projects from agriculture, to schools, all in an effort to foster stability and peace.  Although, perhaps the hardest part will be, and always has been, setting aside old prejudices and hatreds, all while cracking down on plain old fashioned corruption.